Casino Secrets – How Often You Will Win

Can you ever beat the casino? Sure, but the odds arent in your favor. Based on the house edge for the most popular casino game, less than 10-percent of the players walking into a casino will walk out a winner. And, by the end of the year, that number will be even smaller.

Gambling is entertainment, pure and simple. While a few players will be long-term winners at poker or blackjack, you just cant expect to be a real winner. And, if you are wondering what the chances are that youll win your next bet, heres some sobering numbers. Also, consider that other bets are worse, like the California Lottery, where only about 1 in 23 tickets is a winner and the return rate is only 37-percent! Remember,the following numbers represent an average.

Megabucks Slots

The biggest payoff available at any casino is on IGT Megabucks $1 slot machines. Assuming the virtual reels have 368-stops, the odds of hitting the Megabucks jackpot are about 50-million to one.


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However, the jackpot often grows to $20 million or more and the return on the slots is about 89-percent. That’s reasonable for slot players. You can expect to play more than 5 spins for every time you’ll record a win of some type.


Keno is the original big-payoff casino game. Today, live Keno returns about 72-percent to the players, with jackpots as high as $250,000. Electronic Keno has a higher payoff of about 90-percent and still offers nice payoffs.


A typical 3-spot Keno ticket has four outcomes: 0 hits, 1 number hit, 2 numbers and 3 numbers. You must hit at least 2-spots to win. Since those will hit a total of 15.3-percent of the time. You’ll need to play more than 6 games for every time you’ll get paid. The 3-spot payoff at about $42 for a $1 bet. You’ll have to play about 71 games to hit the 3-spot.

Video Poker

On a typical 7/5 Jacks or Better video poker game you can expect to see a 96-percent return. Of course that includes the Royal Flush, which only shows up about once every 40,000 hands. And, that nice four-of-a-kind is tough to hit too: about once every 423 hands. However, you’ll win something about 45-percent of the time, so at video poker you only have to play about 2 hands to hit a winner, even if the payoff is just getting your bet back.

Craps Roll Probability

When playing craps and wagering on the Pass Line or Don’t Pass Line, the house has an edge of about 1.40 percent.  You’ll win 49 times in 100 wagers, but there’s no guarantee you’ll see a decision on the very next roll. Proposition bets aren’t nearly as good for the player, but will have an outcome on the next roll.

The Any Seven Bet has a probability of winning once in six rolls (6 times in 36), since out of the 36 possible dice combinations, 7 is made six ways. The house pays 4 to 1, so the house edge is 16.67 percent.

On the Any Craps Bet (2, 3, 12) you’ll win 1 time in 9 rolls. The house pays 7 to 1 for an 11.11 percent house edge.

If you Bet on 11 (or 3), you’ll win 1 time in 18 rolls. The house pays 15 to 1 and has a house edge of 11.11 percent.  If the house pays 14 to 1, the house edge will jump to 16.67 percent.

If you Bet on 12 (or 2), you’ll win 1 time in 36 rolls. The house usually pays 30 to 1 odds, so the house edge is 18.89 percent.


The Hardways Bet is confusing because both dice must be the same (3 and 3 for hard six, etc.), so youll only roll a specific hardway 1 time in 36 rolls. However, youll get several tries in most instances. Hard 6 and 8 have a house edge of 9.1 percent and the hard 4 and 10 have a house edge of 11.11 percent.

Roulette Winning Number Probability

It’s pretty easy to see that on a North American roulette wheel with 36 numbers plus zero and double zero, your probability of choosing a specific number correctly is 1 time in 38 tries. The house pays 35 to 1 odds and holds a 5.26 percent edge.

The house edge remains the same for outside wagers, like Even, Odd, Black, Red etc. While you’ll be able to choose the right number 18 times in 38, you’ll be wrong 20 times because of the zero and double zero.

Blackjack Winning Hands Probability

Blackjack is different than games like craps and roulette with set odds. To start with, you’ll tie about 9 percent of the time, so it’s safe to say you’ll win about 43 times and lose 48 times out of 100 hands. You’ll make up for losing more hands by getting paid 3 for 2 on a blackjacks, doubling down and splitting pairs. Youll often feel like you only have to play 2 hands to win 1.

If you try a bonus wager like Lucky Ladies, you can expect to buck odds of up to 25-percent and win your bet just once in 9 tries. Of course its not just about winning a bet, its about having a good time. Nobody wins all the time, so budget your money for entertainment, not wins.